The Current Situation Regarding The Lebanese Presidency

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud is under intense pressure to resign following the charges against four of his security chiefs. Many MPs and opposition activists are calling for his resignation. Nevertheless, Lahoud has reiterated his decision to stay on as president until his term expires in November 2007. Whether that may happen or not is up for debate.

In Paris this week, members of the anti-Syrian majority in the Lebanese Parliament, particularly majority leader Saad Al-Hariri and Druze leader Walid Junblatt, have held discussions regarding the election of the next president. US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman has met up with Al-Hariri and Junblatt in France in an effort to find a suitable replacement to Lahoud.

The Lebanese constitution explicates that the president of the republic must be a Christian Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the chamber of deputies a Shia Muslim. The constitution also states that the deputies in parliament must elect the president. Since Saad Al-Hariri controls the majority of seats, he will play one of the biggest roles in determining the next president. However, how long that may take isn't entirely up to him.

When the Lebanese constitution was amended last September under Syrian influence, it was meant to extend Lahoud's term for another three years. Since the president is only entitled to sit one six-year term, Lahoud's term would have expired last November since he took office in 1998. However, as a result of the amendment, Lahoud has until November 2007 to vacate the presidency. Saad Al-Hariri and Walid Junblatt are advocates of ensuring Lahoud's demise before the additional three years are up.

Getting Lahoud out of office may come in different ways. For starters, Lahoud can simply resign if he wishes to, but he has made it clear that he intends to stay on and complete his term in office. However, An-Nahar Newspaper announced that if Lahoud is indicted by Mehlis in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri, he might resign. Lahoud has continuously stated that he has no blood on his hands and thus, it would be expected that even if he is indicted, he will challenge the indictment and refuse to step down. Lebanon's parliament would then have to decide whether it wanted to go ahead with proceedings to impeach the president.

The constitution states that in order to impeach the president, a two-thirds majority is required in the Chamber of Deputies. This could cause trouble for Saad Al-Hariri and his allies. Al-Hariri's bloc controls 72 of the 128 seats and thus, only 56%. Michel Aoun's coalition controls 21 seats and therefore 16%, while the pro-Syria faction holds 35 seats, which means they control 27%. Thus, it is obvious that if Al-Hariri and Aoun were to join forces, they could impeach Lahoud. However, strained relations have emerged between the two.

When Michel Aoun returned to Lebanon following a 15-year exile in France, many had expectations that he would join the established Syrian opposition, but before he even arrived in Beirut, some were criticising him. Aoun and Junblatt were the first to kick it off with Junblatt describing the General's return as a tsunami, while Aoun struck back at the Druze leader by calling him a taxi driver. As time went on, Al-Hariri and Aoun fell out as well. Aoun began making it obvious that he believed Al-Hariri's political methods were corrupt. It led to a division within the Syrian opposition, with some analysts believing that Aoun had struck a deal with Damascus.

Aoun has indicated that he may desire the chance to become Lebanon's next president. He may even be the favourite choice among the Americans and the French because they believe his attitude towards disarming Hizbullah is efficient, although it is not known how he may plan to carry that out. However, it has been reported that Jacques Chirac might not be keen on him. During their meetings, both Al-Hariri and Junblatt expressed their anxieties regarding Aoun's desire for the presidency. They figured that it might not be the best idea to have one general succeed another. There are reports that an attempt at reconciliation between Al-Hariri and Aoun is being discussed. This may even be brought up when Saad Al-Hariri meets President George Bush in New York this week.

Believing that Aoun may prove to be a capable leader in implementing UNSC Resolution 1559, both Bush and Chirac may press Al-Hariri to resolve his differences with Aoun and support his candidacy for the presidency. Even if they do reach an agreement, it still may not be that easy for Lahoud's impeachment to go through.

Aoun's coalition is made up of Christians, some of whom had close ties to Damascus. Thus, it would seem difficult for those who had worked with Syria to turn against Lahoud since these deputies are close associates, or in some cases, relatives of the president. The only way out of this dilemma is probably to reach a compromise, with the possibility of Damascus being involved. The fact that Lahoud still has close ties with Syria indicates that Damascus still has a role in Lebanese politics. After all, they have the power to demonstrate any unhappiness with the Lebanese government by closing the Syrian-Lebanese border, as they did earlier this summer.

Therefore, it seems that Washington, Paris and Damascus may play a role in finding a successor. One factor that many in the Lebanese government are considering is that they cannot chose a president who is vehemently opposed to the Syrian regime. They would have to choose someone like Fouad Siniora, who is part of the coalition against Syrian interference in Lebanon, but not necessarily against the Syrian government itself. This fact may pretty much rule out Samir Geagea's chances of becoming the next president, which is if he had any intentions of running. On the other hand, some suggest that Aoun has hinted that he may be willing to set aside the events of the past, such as his war against Syria towards the end of the civil war, and reconcile his differences with Damascus. The fact that he has joined forces with allies of Damascus may be testament to that fact.

The priority right now for many is to get Lahoud to resign his post. Washington has made it clear that it doesn't see Lahoud's presence on the Lebanese political stage as relevant anymore. The fact that both Lahoud and Al-Hariri are going to New York to represent Lebanon separately makes it clear that one of them isn't welcome. Since most members of the international community, especially Washington and Paris, will hold meetings with Saad Al-Hariri, it makes it obvious that Lahoud's legitimacy is fading dramatically, if it has not faded away completely by now.

Since it is blatant that Syria can influence Lebanese policy through its borders, since it only opened them after Prime Minister Siniora promised not to allow Lebanon to become a base for opposition against Syria, it is clear that Damascus also needs to show its approval of the next president. Despite the differences between the Al-Assad government and Al-Hariri's bloc, reconciliation must take place between the two leaders in order for Lebanon to have a smooth transition of power from Lahoud to the next president.

By now, it may be that the following factors may have to be taken into consideration when selecting the next president:

1. the Lebanese people in order to avoid the current status of internal tension;
2. Washington;
3. Paris, since it is Lebanon's closest European ally;
4. the Al-Hariri bloc in parliament;
5. Aoun's faction;
6. Cardinal Sfeir since most Maronites look up to him;
7. and Damascus.

If Lahoud manages to stay on until his three years are up, then Aoun's faction may not be as important, since a reconciliation is only imperative if Al-Hariri wanted Aoun's support to impeach Lahoud. Nevertheless, the days ahead for both Lebanon and Syria are filled with curiosity. It is very important for the Lebanese, in order to avoid instability, to address these seven factors immediately so as to be prepared for when the Mehlis Report comes out.